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False Forecasts
Opinion · April 8, 2002

What's the summer travel season going to be like? Will airfares rise or fall? How about hotel rates? Will the roads be busy? In newsrooms across the country, reporters are gearing up to answer those questions, just as they do every year. And the same pundits are stepping forward to make their travel forecasts.

But unlike other industries where predictions are closely tracked - stock-picking and sports come to mind - these travel gurus are rarely held accountable for what they say. If they were, the editors and producers who rely on their knowledge would realize that they're wrong almost as often as they're right. Maybe it's time to start keeping score.

How do I know about the shoddy punditry? Because reporters have called on me with these questions - and I've given them answers that later proved to be completely untrue. Last year, for example, I told one magazine, "This will be the worst summer ever for air travel." Wrong. The summer turned out to be pretty good for air travelers, with lower fares and less crowds. (What I should have said, in retrospect, was that it would be the worst fall ever for air travel - but I'm not that good.)

I'm certainly not alone. Last year, Texas travel expert Tom Parsons predicted "the airlines will try to go with high fares" in the summer and BusinessWeek even estimated that prices would increase by between 8 and 10 percent, presumably a consensus of several airline experts. In fact, airfares fell last summer - down 8.4 percent, 9.2 percent and 12.6 percent in June, July and August, respectively, according the Air Transport Association.

I only mention Parsons because he recently issued a press release (yes, some travel pundits actually do that) predicting that airfares are "trending sky high." And I only mention BusinessWeek because I was quoted in the same story in which it made its prediction about climbing fares, and it's more than likely that I was one of the airline gurus who helped it come up with the incorrect estimate. Note to BusinessWeek: sorry.

The truth is no one - not even the airlines - knows what their fares are going to do tomorrow, next week or next season. Like forecasting hotel and car rental rates, it's a guessing game at which you're just as likely to be right as you are wrong. The travel industry relies on sophisticated yield-management systems that set prices on airline seats, car rental rates and hotel rooms. The computer programs create the prices based on factors such as anticipated demand, competition, and load factors or occupancy.

Anyone with even a vague understanding of yield management knows better than to predict prices. So why do they do it?

Easy. Because journalists ask them. And because they offer a tacit deal: if you're wrong we won't tell on you.

It's difficult to resist that kind of a bargain. Travel pundits rely on press mentions to sell books, airline tickets or to find new clients. Even though it's often against their better judgment to offer a reckless forecast, they just can't resist seeing their name in print or their face on TV. So they play along.

It's hard to say if readers or viewers will be better served by keeping a scorecard for these forecasters. Do people pay close attention to these predictions and make purchasing decisions based on them? I think they do, although maybe not to the same extent as Wall Street analysts who project a stock price.

A solution doesn't just lie in holding these travel pundits accountable, but in making sure the journalists covering travel don't ask questions to which there can't possibly be an intelligent answer. Anyone covering a travel beat ought to understand that a dartboard is as effective at projecting prices as any expert. Editors should know better than to write simplistic headlines that leave readers with a wrong impression.

But ultimately it's up to the travel experts to practice restraint. Not every travel issue can be summed up in a tidy sound bite or quote. Those who try are a lying to the public - and themselves.

Christopher Elliott is a travel commentator based in Key Largo, Fla. All e-mailed questions may be edited, condensed or republished at the site's discretion.