The hive mind probes TSA luggage claims data, and here’s what it finds


At the end of yesterday’s post about TSA damage claims for luggage, I invited readers to review the raw data released by the agency. And you did.

Special thanks to Jeffrey Harper and Charles Owen for downloading and dissecting the data. I’ve distilled the numbers further (note: I’m no math whiz, but I consulted my better half, who has an MBA and takes full responsibility for the graphs in this post).

As you can see in the above graph, the agency is settling far fewer claims as a percentage of overall claims. This graph doesn’t include claims that are still being processed, were canceled or are being litigated. They’re based on raw numbers released under the Freedom of Information Act.

This is pretty revealing. The agency has paid out far less, on average, as time has progressed. It follows the same trend line as total payouts, which I highlighted yesterday.

Owen theorizes,

There’s clearly a downward trend, maybe because of the bag fees decreasing the amount of checked baggage. Later data may be biased due to claims still being processed.

A review of the comments also raises other possible explanations, such as fewer valuable items being checked or a shift in TSA policy.

Either way, the conclusion seems inescapable: If you check a bag, TSA is far less likely to reimburse you than in years past. If it does, it’s likely to pay only a fraction of what you’re asking for.

  • David H

    It appears to me that you have more likelyhood of being recompensed if the airline loses/damages your checked bag than if the TSA does the same. Are airline rules better in this instance than one from the TSA?

  • Rob S

    How does this correlate to the overall trend in air travel? Curious if claims are down because travel is down, or just the TSA being a usual model of government efficiency.

  • Christopher Elliott

    @David H, that data is proprietary. We only have lost luggage information from DOT.

    @Rob S — good question. Haven’t considered it.

  • Eric

    Or people may have finally gotten the message that anything in a checked bag more valuable than a tube of toothpaste is not likely to show up at your destination.

  • jeff Harper

    @Rob S – Air travel is up:

    Year Domestic Passenger Enplanements (1,000)
    2003 583293
    2004 629768
    2005 657261
    2006 658363
    2007 679168

    Source:
    http://www.bts.gov/xml/air_traffic/src/index.xml

  • Tim@OKC

    How does a passenger determine wether it is TSA or the Airline to file a damage / missing item claim with? Since both handle the bag, one would assume that there would be finger pointing between them. And yes, I know that when TSA opens your luggage for inspection they’re supposed to put the notification in it, but that would still allow for pilferage by the baggage handlers after that point. Last week return flight from Arizona, checked golf club carrier (locked with cable ties) and upon retrieving from baggage carousel, noted cable ties were missing. Inspection revealed missing two dozen new golf balls, no TSA inspection form. (which would lead me to believe that airline may be responsible) But due to cost involved, decided not to file claim.

    But how would I really know which was responsible? Do you start with Airline, then try TSA? (or vice versa?)

  • Flawfal

    Flawed research here…the incomplete data doesn’t suggest anything other than TSA has improved their claim screening processes. I’d get a hand-slap and sent back to my desk for bringing this kind of report to a business meeting…

  • Joel Wechsler

    @Tim@OKC If you use TSA-approved locks they can be opened and relocked so baggage handlers could not take anything. Therefore any pilferage would have to be done by TSA.