Tarmac delays, R.I.P.? Don’t bet on it

Did the federal government just kill tarmac delays?

You could be forgiven for thinking so after reading this morning’s news release from the Transportation Department, which declared that for the first time since it began keeping records on tarmac delays, it recorded no delays of more than three hours in October. That’s down from 11 flights in Oct. 2009.

There’s no word on delays of less than three hours, although it seems our attention is likely to focus on them soon.

I’ll skip the Ray LaHood soundbite. Needless to say, the DOT is pleased with itself.

But did it just kill tarmac delays? I wouldn’t be so sure.

An independent survey by aviation analysts Darryl Jenkins and Joshua Marks claims 384,000 more passengers were stranded by cancellations last summer, and an additional 49,600 air travelers experienced gate returns and delays, because of the government’s new tarmac-delay rules.

“The size of the fine is just too punitive,” Jenkins told me in an earlier interview. “The reasons we don’t like the rule is that in order to prevent these long tarmac delays, you’re causing these cancellations that would not happen otherwise.”

LaHood struck back shortly after the study was released, calling it flawed and promising not to retreat on its tarmac rules in his blog.

“Air travelers can be assured – and so can our critics – that the DOT is not going to back down when it comes to protecting flyers’ rights,” he wrote.

But Jenkins and Marks make a valid point. Last summer was unusually quiet, in terms of weather, which is the leading cause of tarmac delays. If next summer’s weather returns to normal, tarmac delays could come back with a vengeance.

All of this also raises the question of the proposed Airline Passenger Bill of Rights championed by some single-issue airline advocates. Will that pass with the FAA Reauthorization Bill if there’s a perception that tarmac delays are dead?

In a Republican-controlled Congress, I wouldn’t bet on it.

So tarmac delays will probably live to see another day.

  • Mike Z

    Some of what was said makes no sense. “An independent survey by aviation analysts Darryl Jenkins and Joshua Marks claims 384,000 more passengers were stranded by cancellations last summer, and an additional 49,600 air travelers experienced gate returns and delays, because of the government’s new tarmac-delay rules”.

    Based on how the information was given, it would seem that these two are implying that there would be less cancellations without the tarmac delay rules. This is simply not the case. if a plane is sitting on the tarmac, it generally means it is ready for flight, and that the weather or some other problem is keeping it from taking flight. If a flight is cancelled it would generally mean that the airplane isn’t even at the airport or that the weather is so bad that the flight won’t even have a chance of taking off. No delay rules are going to help there, and to be honest, i would rather be able to get off and walk around if the delay is going to be that serious anyway.

    Also, IIRC if the flight is cancelled, you have the option of a REFUND, where if the flight is delayed, you have to suck it up and wait it out. I think overall, the benefits of shorter delays coupled with the cancellation refund rules are probably better overall than sitting on a hot plane for 6 hours.

  • MVFlyer

    We’ll see what happens this winter–snow and ice are major causes of delays as well.

  • Smkster

    I’ve read all of the arguments about “unintended consequences” and the dire predictions that the DOT rules and the Flyer’s Bill of Rights may well cause. Time will tell. But I cannot, in my wildest imaginations, fathom how anyone can defend keeping people locked up for as long as 8 hours with no food, potable water, diapers, formula and/or flushing toilets. To me that is beyond insane. And then to counter with, “Oh, but it’s only a small portion of flyers to which this happens,” makes even less sense. Only a small portion of people are robbed at gunpoint but no one argues we can or should slack off arresting and prosecuting those committing such crimes. Long live Ray LaHood and Kate Hanni!

  • Brooklyn

    Does anyone know, or could Chris find out, whether the number of people flying is lower as a result of the new TSA grope-or-radiate policy? It would be instructive to have the results for holiday weekends (i.e., Thanksgiving) and for regular days as well. And if fewer people are flying, can we expect fewer delays?

  • ginny

    I don’t know why people INSIST on call runways, TARMAC.
    Runways are made of concrete. Tarmac is a pavement constructed of tar & aggregates. Tarmac would not be able to hold the weight of a plane.

  • David Z

    But I cannot, in my wildest imaginations, fathom how anyone can defend keeping people locked up for as long as 8 hours with no food, potable water, diapers, formula and/or flushing toilets.

    Not necessarily to defend, but this might help at least understand a bit:

    http://crankyflier.com/2010/03/31/an-airline-dispatchers-view-on-why-ground-delays-happen-guest-post/

    http://crankyflier.com/2010/04/29/us-airways-gives-a-unique-perspective-on-the-three-hour-delay-rule/

    Of course, no one has to agree with it or like it. One can only hope the snowstorms don’t get any worse in the coming days like the past two Decembers, and that everyone’s better prepared how to deal with it if it happens.