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When are Fares Coming Down?
The Travel Troubleshooter · February 19, 2002

Q: We are traveling to Rome in May. We've found a fare from New York on Delta Air Lines for about $900 and on Alitalia for $840. Can you tell me when the airfares are coming down so that I can make plans to book the tickets? We have very specific dates that we need since we've rented a house. I'm getting nervous.

-- Edna Kornberg

A: Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Ticket prices are virtually impossible to predict. Fare-watchers can make an educated guess, but the most astute experts are frequently wrong. (And let me be the first to admit that I've been wrong, and as a point of clarification, would never refer to myself as an "expert" or even "astute" when it comes to ticket prices.) Even the people running the airlines don't know what their prices will be in May, or even a week from now, for that matter.

That's because airlines use sophisticated yield-management software to price tickets. The programs were designed by PhDs to forecast demand and set fares accordingly. Translation: Ticket prices change by the second, frequently without warning, and sometimes for the worse.

Just for fun, let me gaze into my crystal ball for a moment. Generally, ticket prices rise during periods of peak demand. Let's use a New York to Rome flight as an example. May is the start of summer vacation, which is when a lot of Americans go to Europe. The yield-management systems know that seats to Rome will be in demand and will raise rates accordingly.

But at this time of year, the variables are different. It's still winter in Europe and not quite spring break in North America, so demand is lower. Airlines cut back their schedules, and prices are typically lower. You can probably find a great bargain if you want to go to Europe now. Indeed, round-trip economy class fares are running as low as $330 for travel during February.

If you need to be in Italy on certain dates, then you shouldn't wait too long to make your reservations. It isn't the prices I'm worried about, but the availability. If you wait until two weeks before you leave, you may not be able to fly into Rome. You might have to fly into Munich or Paris and either drive or take a train. And as romantic as a train ride might sound, I can tell you from personal experience that it's a grueling trip that you really don't want to make after being on a plane for 8 ½ hours.

Have I convinced you to book your ticket now? Well, not so fast. This could be one of those wacky years when all the experts are wrong (like I mentioned, it happens). We've seen more than our fair share of ticket sales. The airlines are struggling to recover from a disastrous year, and it's possible that ticket prices will drop just before the summer vacation period. Not saying it will happen, but it could.

If you're willing to risk losing the deposit on your house and if you want to play the fare guessing-game, then wait.

I wouldn't do it, though. I'm not convinced that airfares will drop before the summer. And I like being able to get a confirmed reservation on a nonstop flight when I'm traveling to Europe. There's no worse way to start a vacation than with a layover in Paris or London, inhaling secondhand smoke and trying to recover from jetlag.

Do yourself a big favor and buy your airline ticket sooner rather than later.

Christopher Elliott is a travel commentator based in Key Largo, Fla. All e-mailed questions may be edited, condensed or republished at the site's discretion. ChrisCrossings appears weekly on this site.